The War Special Military Operation in Ukraine is forcing the World to take sides.
At an emergency session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Wednesday March 2nd, 141 of the 193 member states backed the motion to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Just four countries joined Russia in opposing the call for the withdrawal of all occupying forces – Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria. 35 countries abstained and 12 did not vote.
Turkey, my host country, backed the motion. Indeed, it was a co-sponsor. It is worth reading the Turkish delegate’s statement in full
“Thank you for convening this historic and urgent session, a session that was called because the Security Council once again failed to fulfill its primary responsibility, a session that was convened due to the unjustified, illegal, and illegitimate act of aggression against a founding member of the United Nations by a permanent member of the very organ entrusted…with preserving peace and security, a session that was held as a result of the use of veto power by the very member that is perpetrating this aggression. We reiterate that Russia’s ongoing military offensive against Ukraine violates the principles…on which this organization was founded, rules and principles that aim to prevent wars and protect mankind from disastrous consequences. The international community could not have been a spectator to such an act of aggression. In today’s resolution, the UN emphasizes loud and clear that it stands against egregious violations of the independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political unity of fellow member states. We call on Russia [to heed] the demands of the global community and…its people’s pleas to stop its military operations; withdraw…forces from Ukraine; reverse its decision regarding the…Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea; and return to diplomacy and dialogue without delay. We also reiterate our call for an immediate humanitarian [response]. As a neighbor and friend of both the Russian and the Ukrainian people, Turkey stands ready to facilitate the peaceful settlement of the conflict.”
Turkey’s position then seems clear.
But Turkey, as the closing part of the statement emphasises, is a friend and neighbour of Russia. Whilst all EU countries have closed their airspace to Russian flights, Turkey has not. President Erdoğan, who is fighting to stay in power at the upcoming presidential elections, has a lot to lose. Already his country is in great economic difficulty with official inflation at 54% and real inflation considerably higher. The currency has collapsed and he needs foreign exchange. Russians are the single largest group of foreign visitors to Turkey, constituting 7 million in 2019 before the Pandemic struck.
Erdoğan would have been hoping for a return to these numbers this year until Putin launched this appalling war Special Military Operation. So the President has cast Turkey as a peacemaker. He is struggling to ride two horses at the same time.
And indeed, this war must end and end soon. It is potentially catastrophic for the world and absolutely disastrous right now for the people of Ukraine. But how will it end?
Diplomatically? Putin will not settle unless all his conditions are met. Ukraine will never accept them.
Militarily? Russia may ‘win’ but it will have to flatten Ukraine and kill tens or hundreds of thousands of ‘fellow’ Ukrainians. It can never hold Ukraine.
A coup? It is hard to assess the level of resistance inside Russia but it must be significant. Even inside his inner circle there must be opposition. However, Putin has savagely tightened his grip, threatening 15 year prison terms for “fake” news. He has closed the small but brave independent media and is trying to control social media.
Of the above, whilst I hope for an immediate diplomatic solution that Ukraine and the West can live with, I still fancy the possibility of a palace coup. Putin has dragged his country into a conflict that he can never really win. The West has struck back with economic war on a scale he never imagined. The consequences for all of us will be harsh but spectacularly so for Russians. As to casualty numbers, we can only guess the number of Russian dead and wounded but it is high, mounting and the Russian people were not prepared for it. So maybe those around him will step up to the plate.
And guess what? Next Tuesday is 15th March aka the Ides of March. 2066 years ago next Tuesday, Julius Caesar’s inner circle turned on him, stabbing him to death on his way to the Senate. His crime? He had overreached himself, taking on dictatorial power and threatening the existence of the Republic.
So, I propose a global protest at 15.00 on the Ides of March. OK, I know that sounds absurd. Blogger takes on Putin. But one man started this war. One man can finish it or the Russians must finish one man.
What is it to be? If the world stands, literally, at a single moment with the Ukranian resistance and the Russian protestors, maybe something will shift.
#Idesof March@15.00
Global Protest against Putin
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