Putin is right about one thing; the West’s adoption of sanctions is a Declaration of War.
The Leaders of the Western World are looking hard at how they can bring crushing sanctions down on Russia without destroying themselves in the process. The silver bullet is to stop buying Russia’s carbon fuel. This is not an easy one to get agreement on as some countries are highly dependent on Russian Gas and Oil but it is being studied.
The level of destruction that these sanctions are intended to bring, in my view, does constitute an act of war. The important distinction, however, is that they are highly unlikely to entrain a nuclear military response by Putin. Whereas instating a no-fly zone, the response that the heroic President Zelonsky is pleading for, is a conventional act of war. Such an act risks escalating the conflict out of control, potentially to the point of a Russian nuclear missile launch. Western governments and NATO spokespersons have ruled this out. There is, however, a discernible groundswell of experts and commentators, horrified at the prospect of standing by whilst thousands or even millions of Ukrainians are slaughtered, who are beginning to speak out in favour of calling Putin’s bluff on this.
Today’s Superpower Wars are not just fought on battlefields, they are fought in cyberspace. By this I mean in the space where economies function and where information and disinformation is spread. What brings all empires and governments down, whether democratic or autocratic, is the collapse of a functioning economy. How this comes to pass and how long it takes, will depend on many factors particularly whether it is through a democratic process, military engagement, civil insurgency or some combination of all. A key weapon in all three struggles is Information. By controlling the narrative, the main actors hope to sustain morale. Once morale collapses, the end is in sight.
This is Putin’s weakest link. He may have considerable support within his own people, although we cannot be sure of that. But that support rests upon lies and distortions that can be easily exposed if Russians have access to objective and verifiable news. For the most part, Putin’s opponents do have access to the open exchange of information. Their commitment is therefore much better founded. Their morale is fed by belief in their cause and by overwhelming demonstrations of support across the free world.
In the end Putin cannot win. But we can all lose if this war escalates wildly. One very real threat is that the sight of brave fighters and traumatized civilians playing in technicolour across our uncensored screens will be too much to bear. We will cross a line and directly engage in conflict for a noble purpose: to assist those fighting for democracy and their right to self-determination. But in so doing, we may end by unleasing the Dogs of Nuclear War.
As long as we fight by sending resources of every sort, by visiting every kind of economic damnation on Russia, by looking after the refugees and by fighting to get truthful information into Russian homes we can avoid a holocaust. However, the world may have trouble holding back its warplanes if this goes on too long. Diplomatic efforts must continue but meanwhile we should throw everything short of troops, plane and ships at this vicious government. And we should reach out to ordinary Russians who, as somebody sang “have children too.” It is they and perhaps the inner circle around Putin who can end this for us.
We are all in this, to do everything we can to bring matters to the only acceptable conclusion, defeat for Putin
That is why I say “Beware the Ides of March, Mr Putin.”
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